| Rebounding From Bad Stats Authored by Kevin Broom - November 7, 2005 - 11:22 am
November 7, 2005
By Kevin Broom
Ivan Carter, the Wizards beat writer for the Washington Post, is doing a terrific job covering the team. So the misuse of stats in his latest article about the Wizards, Wizards Hope to Rebound on Defense: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/11/06/AR2005110600958.html, must be someone else’s fault. I blame the editor. Or interns. Just can't get good help these days.
Carter correctly identifies a serious deficiency in the Wizards 3-0 start -- defensive rebounding. As Carter notes, Washington has been outrebounded 159-125 overall. Even more scary (and more to the point), the Wizards have permitted opponents 64 offensive rebounds in just three games vs. just 91 defensive rebounds. That means opponents have an offensive rebounding percentage against the Wizards of 41% -- the league average is typically around 30%.
Where Carter (or some intern) goes off the statistical deep end is with this:
The Wizards led the NBA in offensive rebounds last season despite their opponents shooting 45.9 percent from the field -- 24th in the league. So far this season, Washington leads the league in opponent field goal percentage (34.8). So there are more rebounds to be had, but the Wizards have yet to take advantage.
There are several things wrong with this passage. First, while it's true that Washington led the league in offensive rebounds last season, it's not meaningful because season totals and per game averages do not account for pace differences. For example, last season the Wizards had 1133 offensive rebounds while Seattle had just 844. The Wizards are better on the offensive glass, right? Well, no. Seattle was among the league's slowest-paced teams last season (possessions per game) while the Wizards were among the league's fastest-paced teams. Using offensive rebounding percentage as the measure (offensive rebounds / offensive rebounds + opponent defensive rebounds), Seattle ranked as the league's best offensive rebounding team, while the Wizards were fifth.
Second problem: the offensive rebounding stats are mentioned in the same sentence as a stat about opponent field goal percentage, and the two stats have nothing to do with each other. They happen on different ends of the floor. The Wizards are holding opponents to a lower shooting percentage, and that does create more rebounding opportunities, but those facts have nothing to do with offensive rebounding.
Carter then includes a truly delusional quote from Gilbert Arenas:
"We were a great rebounding team last year so teams are really making it a point to attack the boards on us," said Arenas, who has 13 rebounds in three games. "As guards, we're going to have to do a better job of boxing our man out and then getting back there and helping out. That's how we can get out running and get into our offense."
Hmm, a "great rebounding team?" Hopefully Gil was misquoted. Or the recorder malfunctioned. The Wizards were a good offensive rebounding team last season (fifth in offensive rebounding percentage), and a terrible defensive rebounding team (25th in defensive rebounding percentage).
Within this same article were some good observations about how the Knicks were sending four men to the offensive glass, and the need for guards to box out. Still, the article was a missed opportunity to bolster a strong analytical point with statistical information.
Kevin Broom is a senior writer at RealGM.com and columnist for WizFans.com. He can be reached at kevinbroom@realgm.com.
|
