| WizFans NBA 2006-07 Eastern Conference Preview Authored by Scott Shniderman - October 30, 2006 - 9:07 am
October 30, 2006
The NBA is set to tip off on Tuesday. Over the next two days I will break it down team by team with a specific tilt towards fantasy. Get ready for my fantasy risers, fallers, and one more thing from each team. The teams are listed with their predicted record in order of finish. Check out today’s article for every team in the Eastern Conference. Tomorrow we will head West. Ladies and Gentlemen, here is the East.
CONTENDERS
MIAMI HEAT (60-22)
RISER: Here is the first question that you need to ask yourself reading this article…is Dwyane Wade the best player to come from the 2003 draft? Twenty years from now, people might say that ’03 was the best draft of all time. The Big Three were Wade, LeBron and ‘Melo. Then look to the next tier and there are some legit ballers…Bosh, Hinrich, Ford, Kaman, Diaw, Josh Howard, Collison, and Barbosa. Wade was the first member of the heralded ’03 class to win a ring. He carried the Heat to the title last season, winning the ’06 Finals MVP with a performance reminiscent of another certain bald headed two guard. Finals averages of 34.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 2.67 SPG—are you kidding me?
While you LBJ fans out there might be calling me crazy, look at those Finals numbers. Those are his numbers from when the games matter the most and he dominated. Until LeBron wins a title, you have to take Wade as a serious contender for the best player in the NBA. Wade’s career path might be forever linked to James (and Carmelo for that matter), and he sure has a nice head start with a Finals ring from ‘06. D-Wade and James will determine who will win this year’s regular season MVP. It will be one of those two taking home the MVP hardware--Nash will not three-peat.
FALLER: No, it won’t be the Big Fella. Diesel showed up in great shape this training camp and is rejuvenated by the chance to repeat. The Heat’s big faller will be 38-year-old point guard Gary Payton. It seemed like just yesterday when The Glove was D-ing up the other team’s best player, night in and night out. Yes, Payton hit some big shots in The Finals. No, he won’t have any impact this year in South Beach.
ONE MORE THING: Antoine Walker got hot in The Finals last year. Who knows, maybe he can do that Walker Wiggle a few more times this season. Even if he doesn’t improve, he averaged 12.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2.0 APG and hit 137 3PT FGs last season. Not bad for one of your end of the rotation fantasy forwards. I expect him to get a little better this season, maybe to the tune of 15/6/3.5. Remember this is a player who has had six seasons of 20+PPG when he gets the minutes.
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (58-24)
RISER: Larry Hughes only played 36 games last season for the Cavaliers, adding to his long litany of injury problems over the years. If, and it goes without saying that’s a big IF, the Cavs can keep him on the floor for 75 games, Hughes has the chance to be the legitimate second scoring option they wanted him to be when they signed him away from the Wizards last season. With James looking to get the ball to him more often, 20 PPG is not far-fetched.
FALLER: Drew Gooden was the subject of many trade rumors last year. The Cavs also have Donyell Marshall and up-and-coming big Anderson Varejao to clean the glass, who could play the 4. Gooden’s 10.7 PPG/8.4 RPG averages from last year are decent and the Cavaliers signed him to a three year, $23 million dollar extension this offseason. If Gooden gets injured, the Cavs will not miss a beat with the two-headed monster of Varejao and Marshall.
ONE MORE THING: LeBron James could have the best season in the history of fantasy basketball this year. The Cavs don’t really have a guaranteed wing man as good as Michael Jeffrey Jordan did during his fantasy dominant years in Chicago (a guy named Pippen was quite a fantasy stud in his own right). James’ ability to score, rebound, pass and do it all is unparalleled in today’s game. Any fantasy player who was lucky enough to score the #1 pick in their fantasy draft has to be drooling over the chance to get their hands on James’ potential 35/8/8/3 nightly box score.. You read that right, 35/8/8/3, LeBron owners rejoice.
CHICAGO BULLS (55-27)
RISER: Ben Gordon is ready to take this Bulls team to the next level. He is ecstatic that Bulls GM John Paxson went out and scored the biggest free agent on the market in Ben Wallace. Gordon is the definition of clutch, hitting multiple game winners for the Bulls in his first two seasons in the league. Gordon poured in almost 17 PPG last season. Look for that number to rise to 20+.
FALLER: Luol Deng had a great season in 2005-2006. He averaged a little over 14 PPG and 6.6 RPG in 78 games. He is young and ready to get better. So, how can he be a faller? Well, the Bulls have been developing fan favorite Andres Nocioni to play the 3 as well. Deng and Nocioni will be in a timeshare all season, zapping each player’s value.
ONE MORE THING: Everyone talks about LeBron, D-Wade and Melo, but the Bulls got a solid player out of the 2003 draft in Kirk Hinrich. Hinrich is no MVP candidate, but he will get you 15 PPG and 6 APG for your fantasy team. He is a nice PG2 for your fantasy team, don’t be afraid to take him in the 5th round.
NEW JERSEY NETS (50-32)
RISER: Nenad Kristic is ready to step up to be the man in the middle the Nets. If VC stays healthy, watch out. But the real key is the continued improvement of Kristic. Last year he averaged 13.5 points and grabbed 6.5 boards per game. If he can take it up to 15/8, the Nets will have themselves a bona fide big man. In an NBA.com survey taken of NBA GM’s, they rank him as the second most likely international player to break out this season (behind Darko Mlicic).
FALLER: By no means is Jason Kidd done. But the Nets should enjoy what he brings to the team this year, because he is getting older. He will still get 8 APG and 14 PPG. Kidd is 33 years old and this could be the last year he is playing 35 minutes a game. The Nets drafted their point of the future, Marcus Williams from UConn, to learn from Kidd this season and beyond. Enjoy his numbers this year, because they are going to decline from here on out.
ONE MORE THING: Richard Jefferson never gets any real love from fantasy players. Maybe it is because to some he might seem aloof. Maybe it is because he doesn’t excel at any one particular category. But because he can contribute in all of the fantasy categories, he is a fantasy stud. He averaged 19.5 PPG and 6.8 RPG last season. He shot 49% from the field and 81% from the line. Throw in his almost 4 APG and don’t let him get past the third round in your fantasy draft.
ALMOST THERE
DETROIT PISTONS (49-33)
RISER: Rasheed Wallace is what makes the Pistons go. Some think that Rasheed doesn’t show what he can do until the postseason. While this is somewhat true, Wallace sure knows when to turn it on. Big Ben has moved on to the Windy City and the Pistons signed Nazr Mohammed to replace him, so Rasheed is going to stay at the 4 this season for the Pistons. If he can come to play every night of the year, Detroit will again be in the mix for the Central Division title.
FALLER: Many pundits think Antonio McDyess is ready to show what he can do this year with Ben Wallace out of the picture. I think McDyess is on the down slope of his career. He is 31 years old, and let’s not forget his long and storied injury history. He won’t get his PPG over 10 and or his RPG over 7. Sure, he is a decent role player, but those who are calling for a McDyess revival are getting ahead of themselves.
ONE MORE THING: Chauncey Billups was thrown away as trash by four teams before hooking on with Detroit. Makes you wonder what Toronto, Boston, Denver, and Minnesota were thinking as they all either traded or let Mr. Big Shot walk during his time in the league. First, let’s also talk about his 8.6 APG and 18.5 PPG last season, both career highs. This guy is also bank from the free throw line, shooting 90% over the last two years. Billups is a great guy to have on your fantasy team, target him in the third or fourth round of your draft.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS (45-37)
RISER: Gilbert Arenas will contend for the MVP this year. He will be right there with LeBron, KG, Wade, Dirk, all of the big guns in the final vote. He will only have a real shot at winning the MVP if the Wizards can surprise and contend for the Eastern title. They will go hand in hand. Arenas is going as high as fifth overall in some fantasy drafts. He shouldn’t make it past the tenth pick in any draft. Agent Zero is working on his defense this year and even has his own line of Adidas shoes this season to boot. 30 PPG, 6 APG and 2 SPG is not out of the question.
FALLER: Brendan Haywood looked to be on the rise after bumping his scoring to 9.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG and 1.7 BPG in 2004-2005. Then he took a step back last season in all of these categories, averaging 7.3 PPG, just under 6 RPG and 1.3 BPG. Look for numbers similar this season. If the Wizards are to contend for the Eastern Conference title, they need me to be wrong and for his stats to look more like 12/8/2.
ONE MORE THING: Antawn Jamison was really good last year, averaging 20 PPG and 9 RPG. Now, I don’t think Antawn is going to fall too much, but last season could have been his career year. But when you have a career year, all you can do is drop. I still think he will be integral to the Wizards success, but his numbers will be down just a little, something in the 16/6 range.
PLAYOFF TEAMS, BUT BARELY
INDIANA PACERS (43-39)
RISER: Al Harrington is back where he started his career eight years ago. Remember, he came straight from high school into the league, so it took him a few years to hit his stride. Aside from the ‘02-‘03 season, Harrington’s PPG have risen every season in the NBA. Last year he peaked at his career high of 18.6. I think his trend of points rising almost every season will end this year on a talented Indiana team. Harrington, sporting a Mohawk haircut this season, likens himself to another player who left the Hawks and had a breakout season last year, “I’m the Boris Diaw of the East.” Harrington will play some time at every spot on the floor for Indiana. The rest of the NBA should watch out, Harrington is ready to shine.
FALLER: The Pacers are probably secretly hoping that Johnny Law has its way with Stephen Jackson in his most recent brush with craziness in regards to his felony charge of criminal recklessness, which is set to go to pretrial on Wednesday. Jackson fired a gun in the air at least five times during a fight outside Club Rio in downtown Indianapolis on October 6. The Pacers cannot cut him-he will have too big of a hit on the cap-but would like to rid themselves of the off the court headaches that S-Jack gives them. If he is thrown into jail, the Pacers will have the decision made much easier for them. Jackson will be heckled and booed plenty this season on the road, and even by some of his hometown Pacers fans. I think the Pacers think he is more trouble than he’s worth and want to move on.
ONE MORE THING: Marquis Daniels can run, handle the rock, and might be a great fit with this Pacers team. He has always looked on the verge of breakout with Dallas, but could never find the minutes. Daniels will have to battle another player who many are predicted as a breakout possibility in Danny Granger. If Daniels can get the minutes in Indy, he could break out with something along the lines of 13/4/4. Nothing spectacular, but he could be a versatile player on the end of your fantasy bench.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS (41-41)
RISER: Mo Williams has been waiting for this opportunity. The Bucks pulled off the best trade of the off-season trading little T.J. Ford for big Charlie Villaneuva, clearing the way for Williams to play full time. He averaged 12 points and 4 assists per game and that was primarily as a backup last season. Williams should up his stats to 14.5 and 5 this year.
FALLER: The Dan Gadzuric era is over in Milwaukee. 2005 #1 pick Andrew Bogut is ready to play the full time center slot in Milwaukee this year. Gadzuric had plenty of chances, but just couldn’t show management that he needed to be anything more than a role player, not worthy of a fantasy pick.
ONE MORE THING: Charlie Villanueva dropped 48 points and 17 rebounds in a game as a rookie last season. That stat line impressed Milwaukee so much they went out and traded for him mainly because the 48/17 was dropped on them back in March. Villanueva was the first rookie with that many points and rebounds in the same game since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. The Bucks hope Villanueva can be another superstar whop develops in the Beer City.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
ORLANDO MAGIC (39-43)
RISER: Dwight Howard will be an MVP candidate in the NBA. It just won’t happen this year. There were some snickers from NBA personnel when the Magic passed on all-everything Emeka Okafor with the #1 pick three years ago. The Magic want to ask who is laughing now. Howard finished second in the entire league in rebounds per game at 12.5. He added 15.8 PPG and is only getting better. Is a 20-20 season in his future? If he can up his awful FT% (60%--ouch), I wouldn’t put it past him. He’s that good.
FALLER: Grant Hill teases fans every year. If he can stay healthy, he might average 20 PPG. If he can stay healthy, his team might make the playoffs. If he can stay healthy, he will make his teammates better. Too many ifs for a guy who has averaged only 27 games per year over the last five.
ONE MORE THING: Jameer Nelson can ball. The kid averaged 14.6 PPG and 4.9 APG last season, while only starting 33 games. They are giving him the keys to the car from day one this season. He is going to do everything he can to drive this Magic team into the playoffs.
BOSTON CELTICS (38-44)
RISER: Al Jefferson has had problems staying healthy. This is the year he holds it together and has the breakout many have been. He was playing on a gimpy ankle most of the year last season and couldn’t find a rhythm. I’m predicting at least 11 points and 7 rebounds a game, maybe more if he can start out hot.
FALLER: The Celts made some noise this offseason, trading their lottery pick for Brooklyn-born phenom Sebastian Telfair. The reality of the situation is that they drafted another PG in Rajon Rondo--who has been turning heads in the preseason--and they had another point holdover in Delonte West. There will be too many PGs for any of them to get major minutes or fantasy love.
ONE MORE THING: The NBA lost one of its great innovators and ambassadors with the passing of Red Auerbach on Saturday. He was one of, if not the, first to help integrate the NBA. He drafted the NBA’s first black player, hired its first black head coach and fielded the first all-black starting five. Red played the dual-role of coach/GM and steered the C’s to eight consecutive titles from ’59-‘66, a mark that will probably never be broken. He finished with nine coaching titles overall, a record he currently shares with Phil Jackson.
At the time of his retirement, he was the league’s all time winningest coach with 938 wins. After the ’65-’66 season he moved upstairs to concentrate on his GM role and brought home an additional seven titles, which included two each in the ‘60s and ‘70s. He then drafted Larry Bird in ‘78 and waited a year for him to join the team. After winning the ’81 title, Auerbach was critical to the construction of the great Celtics teams of the mid‘80s by trading the #1 and #13 overall picks for Robert Parish and the #3 draft pick to select Kevin McHale. Adding key veterans Ainge, Dennis Johnson, and Walton was the recipe for ’84 and ’86 titles. The list could go on and on.
Celtics superstar Paul Pierce summed it up best, “Red is a big part of the whole NBA – not just the Celtics, but the whole NBA.” Speaking of Pierce, Why doesn’t PP ever get any love? “The Truth” is a top 10 scorer (over 25 per game) every year; he qualifies at both the guard and forward position and averages 6.5 rebounds per game. Some of it might be due to the fact that his team never does squat in the playoffs and it could be the Celts are overshadowed in Boston by the Red Sox and Patriots, but this guy is a legit star. Don’t let him get out of the end of the first round in your fantasy draft.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (35-47)
RISER: Andre Iguodala is ready to take over as “the man” in Philly. Iverson can still shoot the rock, but Iggy is ready to show what he can do. Last year he threw in 12 PPG, almost 6 RPG, and 3 APG. If he can up those to 15/6/5, he will be every Philly fan’s new favorite AI after the original AI is traded at the deadline this season.
FALLER: It’s hard to believe that Chris Webber bagged 20 PPG, grabbed almost 10 RPG and played in every game last season. What’s even harder to believe is that combining Webber’s and Iverson’s great seasons; the Sixers were still pretty bad. It all falls upon the fact that Philly plays no D. Webber is bound to breakdown; he is 34 and has a bum knee. I’ll take Jan 7 in my office pool as the day Webber goes.
ONE MORE THING: If the Sixers are going to make any noise this season, it will fall upon the long arms of Samuel Dalembert. The knock on this Philly team is that no one plays defense, and Dalembert can make up for that with his huge wingspan and presence in the lane. He battled injuries last year. If he is healthy he wants to show the league what he can do.
NO CHANCE
TORONTO RAPTORS (31-51)
RISER: Chris Bosh has a good chance to become the greatest Raptors player of all time. Yea, I know that’s not saying much. Last year he broke out with 22.5 PPG and 9.2 RPG. He was another stud who came from the heralded 2003 draft class with LBJ, Melo, D-Wade, etc. His plantar fasciitis is a bit troubling, but if he can work his way through it, look for Bosh to push 20/10 again this season.
FALLER: Doesn’t it seem like Morris Peterson has been around forever? He actually put up decent numbers last season, averaging almost 17 PPG and 4.6 RPG. That could be an aberration more than a trend. He doesn’t seem to want to play every night and settles for 3s too much. He won’t come close to matching his 17/4 from last season.
ONE LAST THING: Andrea Bargnani is a bit of an enigma, great one night in the preseason, horrendous the next. While he might show flashes of greatness every now and then, this year’s #1 overall pick will be too inconsistent to be relied upon this season.
CHARLOTTE BOBCATS (30-52)
RISER: Raymond Felton was an absolute monster last season, getting stronger as the season went on. He averaged 16.7 PPG and 7.6 APG after the All-Star break. Don’t worry about him losing minutes to Brevin Knight; there is talk of making Adam Morrison a super-sub and starting Felton and Knight in the same backcourt. The ‘Cats are starting to put together a nice little squad and could be ready to compete sooner than anticipated.
FALLER: Sean May was another one of the local UNC players that the Bobcats drafted to create marketing buzz around the team. For a player who supposedly plays most of his time around the hoop, his 41% FG won’t cut it. He won’t get enough minutes with Brezec and Okafor around to make any fantasy impact.
ONE MORE THING: Gerald Wallace is the closest thing to an all category stud as there is in fantasy hoops. This guy averaged 15.2 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 2.1 BPG, and 1.7 APG. Kirilenko in Utah gets all the pub as a five-cat guy, but Wallace is also the real deal. If he can stay healthy he will be very worthy of a fourth round pick, at worst.
NEW YORK KNICKS (25-57)
RISER: Channing Frye was the one bright spot to come out of the mess in the Big Apple last season. The guy can flat out score for a big man. They didn’t let him start and severely curbed his minutes and he still averaged 12.3 PPG and 5.8 RPG. If he can increase his stats exponentially in relation to what did in limited time last season, he will be the best player on this team in ‘06-‘07.
FALLER: Steve Francis won’t be nearly as bad as he was last year but won’t be nearly as good as he was during his time in Orlando or Houston. Chalk him up at about 14 PPG and 5 APG. You could do worse for your fantasy team, I will say that.
ONE MORE THING: Everyone thinks that Isiah can come in and erase the Larry Brown disaster and that this team is too talented not to win ten more games than it did last season. I’m not so sure. They still have a very oddly constructed roster, not to mention bad team chemistry. Then you throw in a horrible draft---Renaldo Balkman? Thomas will fix some of the chemistry problems, as Larry Brown’s act had grown thin amongst Knicks players. If Eddy Curry can develop a defensive presence---highly unlikely---maybe the Knicks can make some noise. If not, I have the Knicks scoring a two game improvement in the win column from last year’s Big Apple disaster.
ATLANTA HAWKS (20-62)
RISER: Josh Smith is on just about every breakout list for this year. He raised his scoring from 8.2 PPG in December to 17.5 in April and was second in the NBA in total blocked shots with 208. He spent all summer working on his dribbling and shooting and wants to take over as the leader of this young team. If he lasts past the third round, don’t hesitate to grab him and reap the rewards.
FALLER: The Hawks went out and signed Speedy Claxton to be their full time point guard. He is a veteran guy that will give them stability, so that is a positive, but I’m not sure that Claxton is the right type of fit for this team. He is a score first point, and this team already seems to have its top scorers set with Joe Johnson and Smith. Claxton also had problems staying healthy for a full season. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Tyronne Lue steal a bunch of Claxton’s minutes this season.
ONE LAST THING: Besides having one of the most fun names to pronounce basketball, Zaza Pachulia was a very solid #2C for fantasy squads last year. He chipped in with 11.7 PPG and 7.9 RPG and will match and possibly even exceed those numbers with a supporting cast that has now played with him for a full year. He can run the floor well and can hold his own in the paint.
Tomorrow we will discuss the Western Conference, stay tuned…
Scott can reached directly at scottx2000@yahoo.com with any comments, questions, or musings.
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