| WizFans Western Conference 2006-07 Preview Authored by Scott Shniderman - October 31, 2006 - 11:00 pm
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October 31, 2006
On Monday we discussed the Eastern Conference. Eastern Conference teams with risers, fallers, and one more thing from each squad. Today look at the West.
CONTENDERS
PHOENIX SUNS (61-19)
RISER: It seems like every sportswriter is ready to anoint the Suns champions this season, if not within the next couple of seasons. Lots of teams are trying to mimic the Suns run-n-gun approach from the last few years. Well, the last time I checked this “new brand of basketball” hasn’t helped the Suns to win a title, or even get them to The Finals. We will see if this is the year the Suns can rise. The key to the Suns success is Steve Nash, but the Suns biggest riser will be Amare Stoudemire and his return to health. Amare is coming off microfracture surgery, which is no small task. He might have to take a day or two off here or there, but if Stoudemire can return to form by the end of the regular season, watch out NBA.
FALLER: Boris Diaw was an amazing story last season. Trading Joe Johnson for Diaw and a first round pick for Joe Johnson last season had many sports fans scratching their heads. It turns out Diaw was a tremendous fill in for Johnson. When you throw in a first round pick, the Suns got a great ROI for Johnson. Now, they have to find a way to make everyone in the rotation happy with the return of Amare. Someone will have to drop off in scoring, and while it might be The Matrix, Diaw will be the one to see a decrease in his numbers to the tune of 12/6/5. 12/6/5 is still solid for fantasy purposes; I just think Diaw will go too high in fantasy drafts this year.
ONE MORE THING: The biggest problem the Suns will have is trying to keep all the pieces moving as well as they did last year with the return of Amare. Much like Sacramento had issues working Webber back into the rotation after his surgery, Phoenix will struggle initially with how to work their offense through Amare. Raja Bell averaged 14.7 PPG and supersub Leandro Barbosa averaged 13.1 PPG last season. Their numbers will probably drop, but with D’Antoni committed to pushing the ball, the drop could be negligible. If the scoreboard operators in Phoenix were to get paid by the point, there would be some rich part time employees at US Airways Center this season.
DALLAS MAVERICKS (60-22)
RISER: Josh Howard really stepped it up in last season’s playoffs. He showed the rest of the nation what Mavericks fans knew already—he is a superstar in the making. Howard averaged 15.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, and almost 2 APG last year. He should increase all of those numbers this year and become the number two scoring option in Big D. Something like 18.5 PPG, 7 RPG and 3 APG are not out of the question. Look for him to go anywhere between the fifth and seventh rounds of fantasy drafts.
FALLER: Jerry Stackhouse was a very reliable supersub last season. He poured in 13 PPG and chipped in almost 3 RPG and 3 APG as well. He is an outstanding option off the bench for Dallas, but just doesn’t have enough left in the tank to contribute to your fantasy squad. He used to average in the mid 20’s. This year, he will be lucky to score half that total.
ONE MORE THING: Dallas came thisclose to winning the NBA title last season. They were up 2-0 on Miami and looked to be in the driver’s seat. Then D-Wade took over. Well, some Mavs fans might say the refs took over. This includes their biggest fan, and owner, Mark Cuban--remember the “your league is rigged” comment he supposedly yelled to David Stern during a Finals game last season? This year the Mavericks definitely have a good enough team to take home the hardware. Their 2007 Finals fate relies on the shooting touch of Dirk Nowitzki. The Big German keeps getting better at figuring out defenses, but he needs to be more aggressive when it matters most. We saw some of that in the ’06 San Antonio playoff series with some amazing moves taking it right at Tim Duncan for some crucial buckets. But in game 6 of the Finals, Dirk only had two points in entire second half. Not exactly “I’m the Man” material right there. For fantasy purposes, Dirk is the uber-forward. Last year he scored 26.6 PPG, 9 RPG and can stroke the 3 like no other big man. I expect similar numbers and if he is center eligible in your league, he is far and away the #1 C out there. Just because he disappeared in Game 6 of The Finals, don’t let him fall in your draft; he will be the anchor of your fantasy team.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (58-24)
RISER: Manu Ginobili was nicked up all of last season. He was never quite right and never played more than 35 minutes in any game all year. This year, he should be ready to roll and is primed for a breakout season in all categories. Look for him to improve on all of his 15/3.5/3.6 categories in 2007. With teams keying in on Duncan and Parker, a rise to 16/5/5 looks very possible. Also, don’t forget about his quick hands. Ginobili is good for almost 2 SPG. Because of his all around numbers, try to grab him in the middle rounds of your fantasy draft.
FALLER: Michael Finley used to be a third or fourth round fantasy pick. It seemed like he went this high just three or four years ago. The times have changed. Finley is now a 6th man and barely averaged 10 PPG/3 RPG last year. He won’t do much better than that and his days of a fantasy contributor are just about over.
ONE MORE THING: Tim Duncan averaged career lows in both points and rebounds at 18.6 PPG and 11 PRG last year. He is not ready to go out like that. Perhaps it was because he was playing in multiple Finals over the last few years. Perhaps his USA basketball commitments over the last few offseasons tired him out. He has bulked up over the offseason and is looking to prove to the NBA that he is not done. He will bounce back to the 20 PPG/12 RPG levels we are used to.
ALMOST THERE
HOUSTON ROCKETS (47-35)
RISER: Bonzi Wells averaged 23.2 PPG and 12.0 RPG in the playoffs last year with Sacramento. The Kings offered him a $40 million, five-year contract. The Rockets offered him one year at $2.1 million. Which offer did he take? Surprisingly, Wells is playing in Houston this year. Wells relishes the chance to play alongside Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming in Houston. While some think he is a fool for passing up the kind of money the Kings offered, Bonzi is betting that one year with the superstars in H-Town will help him showcase himself into an even better contract next year. Last year, Wells averaged 13.6 PPG and 7.7 RPG. He might increase those numbers slightly this year, but playing alongside the Yao and T-Mac will definitely increase his visibility.
FALLER: Juwan Howard actually started 80 games last season for Houston while pouring in 12 PPG and 6.7 RPG. With the addition of Wells and Battier this season, it would be shocking for Howard to start even 40 games for Houston in ’06-’07. Howard has reached the end of the line for fantasy; his train is just about at the station.
ONE MORE THING: The Rockets are rocking if Yao and T-Mac are on the floor. In the 31 games they both played last year, Houston was 21-10, but 13-38 in the rest. It doesn’t take a math major to know that Houston was a ton better with both of their superstars contributing. McGrady and Ming averaged 24.4 and 22.3 PPG respectively last season. If the Big Two can stay healthy with the additions of Wells and Battier this offseason, the Rockets could contend for the title if everything falls into place.
DENVER NUGGETS (46-36)
RISER: Nene sat out all but one game last season. If Kenyon Martin or Marcus Camby misses time (is there anyone out there who doesn’t think K-Mart or Cambyman will get hurt this season?), Nene will step right into the lineup at the 4 or the 5. If he gets the minutes, the man who is simply known as “Baby” in Portuguese will have a major chance to contribute for the Nugz. 12/8 sounds about right.
FALLER: Kenyon Martin is in the third year of a seven year $90 million deal. Denver was begging anyone to take him as part of a trade during the offseason. Martin averaged 13 PPG and 6 RPG last season and is a lock to miss time with his balky knee. Throw in his meltdown/cursing match with Coach Karl in the locker room during last year’s playoffs, and that adds up to a long season for Kenyon.
ONE LAST THING: Carmelo Anthony took a huge step towards his jump to elite fantasy status last year by averaging 26.5 PPG and almost 5 RPG. It is his 2.7 APG that leaves something to be desired. The team will look to run again this season and ‘Melo is a perfect fit for this type of offense. If he can keep his averages at around 25/5/5, it will push him nearly into the LBJ/Wade category as far as fantasy hoopers go.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS (44-38)
RISER: Lamar Odom was the only player in the NBA to average 14 PPG, 9 RPG and 5 APG last season. If he can push his PPG just two to three points higher, he will look like a lite version of Shawn Marion. Marion is going in the top five of almost every fantasy draft. If you can get Odom in the third round of your draft, do it. Do it now.
FALLER: Many are touting the Lakers signing of Vladimir Radmanovic as the key to LA’s increased depth. He averaged almost 10 PPG last season and can rain from downtown for a big man. However, there are already reports out of La-La land that Vlad needs surgery to fix sprained ligaments in his right hand. He has said he is going to wait until after the season, but that’s not what you want to hear from a three-point specialist.
ONE MORE THING: Kobe Bryant is the closest thing to Mr. Clutch in The Association. He will single-handedly add ten wins to the Lakers total this season. Last year he averaged 35.4 PPG. Throwing in 5.3 RPG, 4.5 APG, and 180 3’s made, that’s the making of a true fantasy stud. Even with his knee injury, don’t let Mamba make it past the sixth or seventh pick of your fantasy draft.
PLAYOFFS, BUT BARELY
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (43-39)
RISER: Shaun Livingston has the opportunity to become something special. He was announced the starting point by the Clips earlier this week and wants to show the nation what he can do. His body is just starting to fill out and has a nice, long quick first step. He will have multiple triple doubles this season. I see a 12PPG/8APG/7RPG stat line possible for the young pup. He has a plethora of weapons to help him out and could be a breakout candidate for the Clip Show this year.
FALLER: Tim Thomas cashed in on a four-year $24 million dollar deal this offseason. Considering that the Chicago Bulls paid him to leave town last year, this is a huge coup for Thomas. Sure, he scored 15 PPG and grabbed 7 RPG in his time with the Suns vs. the Clippers and Lakers in the ’06 playoffs last year, but now that he has his big contract, might he be less motivated? We shall see.
ONE MORE THING: I would venture to guess that the Bulls might want to call “do over” on the trade that sent Elton Brand to the Clippers for the rights to draft Tyson Chandler. Last year Brand dropped 24.7 PPG and 10 RPG. He is one of a very select few in NBA history to average a double-double with at least 24 PPG. Brand should garner some consideration for the league’s MVP award this year, but unless his teammates help him get further in the postseason, it will be very difficult for Brand to be taken seriously as a candidate.
UTAH JAZZ (41-41)
RISER: Deron Williams averaged 13.8 PPG and 6.6 APG in April and is ready to turn it on this season. After losing his job briefly last year, Williams knows that he needs to earn his PT in Salt Lake City. Williams worked out with former Jazz legend John Stockton this offseason to learn how to run the point in the SLC. If he can step it up and get his full season averages to where they were last April, every fantasy baller would be very happy.
FALLER: Carlos Boozer is finally healthy after missing all but 33 games last year for the Jazz. He is ready to prove that he is worth that huge contract the Jazz bestowed upon him in 2004. Why is he a faller? Because even if he plays well, it is pretty common knowledge that the Jazz want to move him. It would be shocking to see him finish the season in Utah.
ONE MORE THING: The Jazz’s playoff hopes rest on the health of Andre Kirilenko, AK-47. Kirilenko has missed 63 games over the past two seasons and Utah needs him healthy for at least 75 this year to make the big show. Combining AK with Boozer and Okur will comprise a very formidable front line in Salt Lake. If Kirilenko and co. can stay healthy watch out for a big jump from the Jazz.
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
NEW ORLEANS/OKC HORNETS (41-41)
RISER: The Hornets will lose out on a trip to the playoffs on a tiebreaker with the Jazz, but it won’t be because of the reigning ROY Chris Paul. Last season Paul dropped 16.1 PPG, 7.8 APG, and 5.1 RPG on his way to a nearly unanimous (1 vote short) Rookie of the Year award. Paul is everything the Hornets need to contend for years to come; a smart, quick and talented ball handler to run the show. He will improve his numbers to around 17.5/8/5 and nearly will his upstart young Hornets to the playoffs. If he can keep playing as well as he did in his first year, there will be MVP talk in his future.
FALLER: Desmond Mason was a collegiate hero in Oklahoma City playing for the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Hornets traded for him to give their some local flavor for when they play their games in OK City. He fared well enough last year by scoring almost 11 PPG/4 RPG but with the additions of Peja, Chandler and Bobby Jackson, I don’t see how Mason can average double digits in points again this season.
ONE MORE THING: Peja Stojakovic averaged 18 PPG last year for Sacramento and Indiana. He can flat out shoot the rock but it’s his toughness that has always been questioned. I’m sure Pacers fans cringed seeing him sitting on the bench during the playoffs last season when the team needed him the most. Sure, the Hornets overpaid for him, but they needed to pay him more than they should have to get him to come play in NO and OK this year. If he can stay healthy and provide the outside threat the Hornets have been missing the last few years, Peja might prove to be worth their investment. Big if.
SACRAMENTO KINGS (39-43)
RISER: Due to the loss of Bonzi Wells, Kevin Martin is going to have the two guard spot all to himself this season. Martin showed flashes of what he could do last year. When given the minutes last February, Martin averaged 16.6 PPG and 4.5 RPG. If he can play to his abilities, this is his potential fantasy ceiling. Would you take 16/5 and major minutes from a player like Martin as one of your last fantasy draft picks? Yes.
FALLER: Bibby actually averaged a career high 21.2 PPG and a very respectable 5.4 APG last season. He will be a faller because there is no way he scores over 20 PPG again this season. He also opens the season on the IR with a thumb injury. Nowhere for Bibby to go but down from last year’s stats. Buyer beware with Mike this season.
ONE MORE THING: So, with the Kings going nowhere fast, how soon will Ron Artest do something completely crazy? He is the Terrell Owens of the NBA. Will he quit midseason to become a full time rapper? Maybe we will know more after his album comes out on Tuesday. Maybe we won’t. The point is that you never know what will happen with Crazy Ron and it will be a guessing game all year with him.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (35-47)
RISER: Troy Murphy averaged a double-double last season (14PPG/10 PPG). He is going to play the 5 this season, which will make lots of fantasy players happy as well. His ability to shoot from outside (not downtown) will cause mismatches and increase his scoring this season to the neighborhood of 15.5. If he can continue to pull down his 10 RPG, you have yourself a 15.5 PPG/10 RPG center and fantasy hoopsters rejoice.
FALLER: Adonal Foyle has always tempted fantasy players with his shot blocking potential. Now that the Warriors are playing small ball with Murphy in the middle and Dunleavy at the four, Foyle is going to be a forgotten man. Forget about him in your fantasy drafts too.
ONE MORE THING: If Baron Davis can stay healthy, this team could surprise. B-Diddy averaged 17.8 PPG and 8.9 APG last season. Maybe he can bump that scoring up to around 19 or so. 19 and 9 is great for a fantasy PG. What’s holding him back? His inability to stay healthy. He hasn’t played a season where he didn’t miss 15 or more games since ’01-’02.
NO CHANCE
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (31-49)
RISER: Randy Foye had a spectacular career at Villanova averaging over 20 PPG and nearly 6 RPG. The NBA is a lot tougher than the Big East, but Foye could contend for the ROY this season. If he can overtake Trenton Hassell for minutes at the shooting guard spot in Minnesota, watch out, he has real talent. Many scouts liken him to Dwyane Wade, a combo guard who can take it to the rack. Is 13.5/5/3 out of the question? Definitely not.
FALLER: Mike James had a career year in ’05-’06. 20 PPG, almost 6 APG and 3 APG. He will have another great year, but will drop off slightly in all categories deferring to KG and Ricky Davis. A realistic prediction? 16/5/3. He will go too high in fantasy drafts.
ONE MORE THING: It seems like only yesterday when the Timberwolves were contending for the Western Conference title. That’s because it was only two years ago when Sam Cassell and Kevin Garnett and the rest of the Wolves were battling the Shaq/Kobe Lakers for the right to get to The Finals. Things fell apart quickly for Minnesota and the T-Wolves are still looking for their first trip back to the playoffs, let alone Western Conference finals. KG is good for his 22 PPG, 12 RPG and 4 APG this season, book it. It’s almost sad to see that go to waste for T-Wolves fans, but fantasy GMs should not let Garnett slip past the fourth pick of any fantasy draft.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (26-56)
RISER: Rudy Gay will be the cornerstone of this franchise within the next three years if the Grizzlies commit to an up-tempo attack. In the right system Gay could average 17/5/5 on an annual basis. This Grizzlies team is currently very banged up with all five of their starters somewhat injured starting the season. If Gay can work his way into some major minutes, he could shine.
FALLER: Eddie Jones can still hit the 3. That’s about all he can still do for your fantasy team. He is 35 and aging quickly. I would be surprised if he lasts the entire season as the starting shooting guard. Stay away from E-Jones on draft night.
ONE MORE THING: Pau Gasol being out until the second half of the season with his broken foot will really hurt this team. They will dearly miss his leadership, not to mention his 20/9 every night. But with Gasol’s injury and the Grizz trading Shane Battier for Rudy Gay, it will give Mike Miller a chance to show what he can do. The former ROY averaged 13.7 PPG/5.4 RPG this season. With the other stars out with injury or traded, Miller could increase his numbers to 16/6/4. Throw in a bunch of 3’s to boot and you have yourself a middle round fantasy player.
SEATTLE SUPERSONICS (23-59)
RISER: Chris Wilcox played like a man possessed in his 29 games with Seattle last season. After only bagging 4 PPG and 3 RPG while with the Clips last season, Wilcox exploded for 14 and 8 with the Sonics. He got a three-year contract this offseason. Let’s see if he can stay motivated to put up big stats again for Seattle this year.
FALLER: Even though the Sonics extended Luke Ridnour’s contract on Monday, I’m still not sold on Cool Hand Luke to be a major fantasy contributor. Coach Bob Hill has said that he likes Ridnour to start games, but he likes Earl Watson’s defense in to finish games. The fact that they split time hurts both of the Sonics point guards’ fantasy value.
ONE MORE THING: Seattle had arguably the worst defensive team in the history of the NBA last season. In addition to giving up the most points per game (105.6) in the league last year, they gave up 114.4 points per 100 possessions, third worst in NBA history. It’s a shame that Ray Allen is wasted on this terrible team, but thankfully for fantasy players, the lack of a defense doesn’t matter. Take Ray Ray’s 25 PPG and NBA record 269 3’s made and be happy.
PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS (20-62)
RISER: Roy for ROY. Has a nice ring to it, doesn’t it? Brandon Roy is the most NBA-ready of the ’06 rookie class. Conveniently, the Blazers have an opening at the small forward spot in their starting lineup. Roy could put up something to the tune of 16/5/5. That would be good enough to take home the rookie award. If the Blazers let him play enough minutes, Roy should win the award. Don’t be afraid to grab him late in your fantasy draft.
FALLER: Joel Przybilla was looking like a possibility for the riser section of this article until Portland went out and signed Jamaal Magloire. Now they are in the dreaded center timeshare. J-Pryz could still surprise and average close to a double-double, but I would stay away.
ONE MORE THING: Zach Randolph had a very underrated 18 PPG/8 RPG last season. There aren’t many other proven scorers on this Portland team. If he can stay healthy, Z could even increase his scoring from last season and post double-double to the tune of 20.5 PPG and 10 RPG. Very solid for a middle round draft pick, which is where he is going in most fantasy drafts.
Well, there you have it, the East and the West broken down for you. With games starting tonight, I’m very excited to see how it will all shake out. Happy NBA Opening Night!
Scott can reached directly at scottx2000@yahoo.com with any comments, questions, or musings. |
