| Deconstructing Bill Simmons Authored by Jason Rosenthal - February 26, 2007 - 1:08 pm
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Skimming through most of the article, it appears Simmons has spent far too much time playing with RealGM’s Trade Checker. For full disclosure, I couldn’t read the entire column because I consider reading about fantasy trades a waste of time. To sum up my thoughts on the column: it's a lot easier said than done.
But the problem is that your casual Wizards fan will read this on the Worldwide Leader’s web site, and give Simmons’ column far too much credence. The casual fan might even think it’s on the mark. Or even close. Because I don't have the time to point all the mistakes, inconsistencies, and generally misguided thoughts throughout the column, I'll concentrate on what he said about the Wizards. In truth, Simmons’ take on the Wizards isn’t just wrong. In Simmons’ parlance, it’s a train wreck. Let’s first look at what Simmons said:
WASHINGTON: F-plus
The Wizards have an MVP candidate and a likable team in a crappy conference, but with a catch: their two centers (Etan Thomas and Brendan Haywood) despise one another and fought three times in the past two seasons. Most teams would proactively try to move one of them -- for instance, they could have offered Haywood, Jarvis Hayes' expiring deal and their No. 1 for Jamaal Magliore and Portland's No. 2 -- but since this is the NBA, and nothing makes sense, the Wiz chose to stand pat. I asked my buddy House (a Wizards fan) about this and we had the following exchange:
House: "They like Thomas and Haywood together because they play 42 minutes a game combined and give them a 12-11 every night. ... They didn't want to mess that up."
Me: "Wait, they were worried that their production would drop from a position that was giving them a 12-11 every night?"
House (after a pause): "Whaddya want from me? I didn't say it made sense."
First of all, the Wiz aren’t trading Haywood for cap space (Magloire). We wouldn’t expect the mainstream media to pay attention, but Haywood has a huge impact on the game when he's on the court for the Wizards. Yes, that's right. Haywood has a positive effect when Eddie Jordan chooses to keep him on the court.
The Wizards are one of the worst defensive teams in the Association. But they are more than 7 points per 100 possessions better defensively when Haywood is on the floor. (Note: It’s best to use "per possession" stats to compare offenses and defenses because per game stats are affected by "pace" — different teams play at different speeds.). Last season, they were 4.1 points per 100 possessions better; in 2004-05, 9.9 points better; in 2003-04, 5.1 points better. In comparison, the Wizards are just 0.5 points per possession better defensively when Thomas is on the floor. Last season, they were 0.9; in 2004-05, they were 4.5 points WORSE; and in 2003-04, they were 1.6 points worse. It’s stomach-turning to keep reading the media's conventional wisdom that Etan and Haywood are interchangeable. For five consecutive years, Haywood has been a much more effective player.
Haywood is by far the team’s best defender and underrated by almost everyone, especially the mainstream media folk who strictly look at per game averages to make up their minds. Eddie Jordan goes small a lot, and often times, it’s to the detriment of the team.
And what does Simmons expect from conventional statistics out of his centers when there are three guys dominating the shots? Did he bother looking around the league to see what other centers are doing? Do I need to mention the likes of Bill Cartwright and Bill Wennington? Where does it say you need a center, or a center-combo, to put up huge statistical numbers to have a successful team? Sure, the Wizards aren’t fortunate enough to have a Yao Ming or a Dwight Howard on their team, but how many teams can say that they do?
Secondly, the Haywood/Etan feud has been, predictably, blown out of proportion by the media as elucidated by Boswell’s Centers of Dissension article a couple weeks ago.
The Wizards’ season could get derailed for any number of reasons, but it won’t be because the two centers hate each other. If anything, it will fuel them to improve their game. I must have missed the memo that if teammates don’t like each, then they MUST be traded. Good — even great — teams never have internal feuds, do they? The '86 Celtics sang kumbaya after every game, right Simmons?
Boswell and Simmons are dead wrong in asserting that until the Haywood and Etan feud ends “little good can happen.” Oh really? Haywood and Thomas fought just before the season started and since then they’ve sat atop the Eastern Conference standings, led their division much of the season, and sent two players and their coach to the All-Star game.
Fighting in practice generally isn't a good thing. But is it a bad thing? Properly channeled, Haywood and Thomas disliking each other is a good thing. It provides a never ending supply of motivation, which should translate to better things on the court. Their spat will have ZERO impact on the Wizards win/loss record because the Wizards locker room isn’t divided by it — they’re amused. But, fights and made up locker room intrigue make for good copy, even if that copy doesn’t make sense.
Thirdly, the Wiz probably would have traded Etan and Hayes for Magloire's expiring deal and a high second, simply to rid themselves of Etan’s contract and free cap flexibility to resign Andray Blatche and DeShawn Stevenson. But that deal probably wasn’t on the table.
Fourthly, what about Jamaal Magloire (note: Simmons spells his name wrong, nice editing ESPN), the guy Simmons wants the Wizards to trade for? He’s a shell of his former All-Star self, averaging 5.7 points and 5.3 rebounds. His teams have been trying to get rid of him for the past 3 seasons. He’s a plodder that would be a bad fit for any team that likes to get up and down the court. You know, a team like the Wizards.
So, in summary, Simmons wanted the Wizards to trade their best center and best defensive player, who's signed cheaply for the next 3 seasons, AND throw in a 1st round pick in a deep draft, for an overrated aging plodder, who’s gotten progressively worse in each of the past 4 seasons, and who would be an awful fit for the fast-paced Wizards.
Yup, makes perfect sense to me.
“I am more convinced than ever that I would be one of the top-seven best GMs in the league. No, seriously,” Simmons writes.
Don’t quit your day job, Billy Boy.
Jason Rosenthal is the content supervisor at WizFans.com. Got a comment? Send him an email at jmrosenth@yahoo.com. |
