| Wizards Could Follow Boston's Path To The Top Authored by Ben Becker - January 21, 2009 - 4:41 pm
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The Boston Celtics were so good last season, that it’s easy to forget how bad they were the year before. The 2006-2007 Celtics had the second worst record in the NBA (24-58) and bore some striking parallels to this year’s Wizards team. More importantly, just as a few decisive trades transformed the Celtics in to champions, the Wizards are similarly well-positioned to make major improvements.
The Celtics took three main steps to go from a poor team to a great one.
First, they had the league’s second worst record. They hoped that lottery ping pong balls would bounce their way and that they’d land either Greg Oden or Kevin Durant in the 2007 draft. Instead, they drew the fifth pick. While it wasn’t ideal, the pick was still a marketable asset.
Secondly, they dealt the pick (Georgetown forward Jeff Green) along with Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak to Seattle for Ray Allen. Though he made an All-Star game back in 2001-2002, Szczerbiak’s primary value in the deal was that his massive contract (more than $15M per year) was a year shorter than Allen’s. Essentially, Seattle dumped Allen for two prospects and a year of salary cap relief.
Third and most significantly, the Celtics acquired Kevin Garnett. The centerpiece of the package was 22-year old big man Al Jefferson, who had shown signs of becoming a star. The deal also included Theo Ratliff (also a one-time All-Star, well past his prime) and his near-$12M expiring contract, a first round pick, and marginal youngsters Gerald Green, Ryan Gomes and Sebastien Telfair.
In both trades the Celtics offered their trading partners young talent to begin their respective rebuilding processes as well as financial relief. The Wizards can offer prospective trading partners similar assets.
The Wizards have an excellent chance at a high lottery pick. If the season ended today, the team could pick no worse than fifth. While it’s possible they could land the first overall pick (and likely select Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin), the odds are stacked against that scenario. The Wizards will have a high pick, however, and high picks often carry extra value in late June.
So what in the way of financial flexibility can the Wizards offer a trading partner? The answer is a lot. As most NBA fans know, the free agent class of 2010 may be the best in history. Possible free agents include Lebron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Paul Pierce, Joe Johnson, Steve Nash, and Manu Ginobili. Quality second-tier guys like Tayshaun Prince, Josh Howard, Tracy McGrady and Tyson Chandler will also be available. Unsurprisingly, many teams are positioning themselves to have as much room as possible under the salary cap to land a star or two and reshape their team.
Exhibit A is the New York Knicks and their recent trades of talented players signed to longer term contracts (Zach Randolph, and Jamal Crawford) for players with salaries that expire by the summer of ’10.
Exhibit B is Detroit trading Chauncey Billups and his long-term deal for Allen Iverson, whose contract expires this summer. As more teams try to clear cap room, contracts that end in the summer of 2010 will increase in value.
The Wizards have two such contracts: Etan Thomas and the recently acquired Mike James. The fact that Wizards GM Ernie Grunfled didn’t take on any longer term salary in the James deal (which also netted prospect Javaris Crittenton) demonstrates that Grunfeld knows the value of deals ending in 2010. Together, Thomas and James represent nearly $14M in contracts that will come off of someone’s books after next season. That could be meaningful cap room for a team looking to make a run at a free agent or two.
Like the Celtics of two seasons ago, the Wizards also have a bevy of marketable young talent. Two big men, Andray Blatche and Javale McGee, could fetch a lot in trade. Blatche has yet to show the consistent potential to be the offensive force that Jefferson did, and his work habits and desire have been questioned. But, his talent is undeniable. Earlier this season, Blatche became the first player to go for 25 points 12 rebounds 5 assists and 5 blocks in a game since Jermaine O’Neal did it in 2007. Unlike Jefferson, who got a 5-year $65M extension from Minnesota, Blatche is locked up until 2012 on a bargain contract that pays him no more than $3.5M a year — less than a third of Jefferson’s price tag.
McGee could have a lot of trade value as well. If this summer’s draft were held again today, McGee would certainly be picked much higher than 18th. Chris Paul compared McGee’s length and athleticism to Orlando’s Dwight Howard — the gold standard for big men. He has three more years on his (cheap) rookie deal and has demonstrated the work ethic and basketball background to suggest he’ll get a lot better quickly.
Add to the mix Nick Young, Javaris Crittenton, Oleksiy Pecherov and Dominic McGuire and Washington has six young players who have shown potential to be at least quality NBA rotation players. None of these latter four will likely be stars (Young’s ceiling is the highest), but all have trade value because they’re talented and cheap.
So like Boston did two summers ago, the Wizards will have a high pick, they’ll have marketable contracts, and they’ll have young talent. These are key ingredients for a major roster move.
Now comes the fun part for all armchair general managers: speculating just who the Wizards have a shot at in a trade. If Toronto (16-27) does not start winning soon, Chris Bosh would have to be considered a flight risk as free agent next summer, and could end up on the trade market. The Suns might consider moving Amare Stoudemire for a big rebuilding package, rather than re-signing him to a huge contract, as both Steve Nash and Shaquille O’neal may depart Phoenix next summer (Nash via free agency, and Shaq possibly to retirement). In order for a Bosh or Stoudemire trade to make sense for the Wizards, they would have to sign a long term extension with Washington. But the Wizards would be in a position to outbid any other suitors (as they did with Gilbert Arenas this past summer) and they would likely become instant contenders with such a talent influx. Both would be key factors in the Wizards favor in getting an acquired star to sign a long-term extension.
Other names to keep an eye on are Dirk Nowitzki and Andrei Kirilenko. Nowitzki is 30, makes the eleventh-highest salary in the league, and his Mavericks have fallen from the league’s elite. Owner Mark Cuban may look to unload long term financial liabilities in order to begin a rebuilding project.
Kirilenko could finally get his divorce from Jerry Sloan if the Jazz decide they need to free up long term money to re-sign Carlos Boozer and/or Paul Millsap It’s too early to know who will be on the market, but history shows that some veteran talent will be available. The one thing that is certain is that the Wizards will have assets to net a big-time player.
Back to this year’s Wizards. There’s one other trait they share with the pre-championship Celtics — they’re not as bad as they look. Paul Pierce missed almost half of 06-07 and the Celtics famously went into “tank mode” in an effort to land Oden or Durant.
The Wizards’ ping pong ball collection efforts are aided by the absence of their best offensive and defensive players, Arenas and Brendan Haywood, respectively. Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison were both 2008 All-Stars and neither has shown signs of a decline (though the experiment of moving Butler from forward has hurt his productivity of late). If Arenas can get fully healthy and return to form as one of the most efficient volume scorers in the NBA, Grunfeld will have the opportunity to upgrade a roster far better than what Danny Ainge built into a championship squad. In other words, the Wizards may not need to add a player at Garnett’s level. If the Wizards can add one very good rotation player, they’ll be a tough out in the playoffs.
There is a very significant wild card in this entire theory. Namely, can Wizards owner Abe Pollin afford a big acquisition? The prevailing wisdom on Pollin has been that he would not allow Grunfeld to exceed the NBA’s luxury tax threshold unless the Wizards could contend for a title. But with the economy in severe recession and the tax threshold — which is tied to league revenues — poised to drop in coming years, has the game changed for Pollin? If, like many Americans, his net worth has taken a serious hit this year, he may be unable to afford a larger payroll and the accompanying luxury tax payments.
One thing is certain: it’s been years since the Wizards have been in such a strong position to deal for an impact player. Only time will tell how much Grunfeld can improve the roster, but don’t be shocked if the Wizards go from doormats to contenders in short order. |
