| 2009-10 Season Preview: Washington Wizards Authored by Andrew Perna - October 22, 2009 - 8:45 pm
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: -16.0, 28th
Key Additions: Randy Foye, Mike Miller, Fabricio Oberto
Key Subtractions: Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas, Juan Dixon, Antonio Daniels
Key Rookies: None
Probable Starters: Gilbert Arenas, Mike Miller, Caron Butler, Antawn Jamison, Brendan Haywood
Point Guard: The Wizards didn’t need to make many moves in order to enter the playoff conversation this season, but they improved their roster anyway. Those additions, along with improved health, have Washington primed for a huge turnaround after winning just 19 games in 2008-09.
Prior to his knee issues, Gilbert Arenas was among the league’s most explosive offensive players. It remains to be seen if he still has that trademark athleticism, but I highly doubt he left his passion and jump shot on the operating table. He is unquestionably a shoot-first point guard, but doesn’t lack court vision or passing skills. He had 20 assists in the two games he played last season.
Therein lies the huge risk. Over the past two seasons Arenas has played just 15 games for the Wizards. They cannot, and will not, contend for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference if Agent Zero misses another 80 games. Over a three-year period, from the 2004-05 season to the 2006-07 campaign, Gilbert averaged close to 12 Win Shares for Washington. That put him among the NBA’s most influential players and is more than 50% of the win total his teammates posted without him last season.
As great as he is offensively, he’s not too bad defensively. He has averaged more than 1.5 steals per game in each of his full seasons, although his statistics make him look like a better defender than he actually is. He takes too many chances, and doesn’t have a tremendous interior presence to consistently bail him out. Center Brendan Haywood is a good shot-blocker, but he’s wildly inconsistent and has dealt with injury issues of his own as of late.
While Arenas is the key to Washington’s playoff hopes, they are more equipped to handle an injury to their star than in year’s past. In addition to returning guards Mike James and Javaris Crittenton, the Wizards added Randy Foye in a trade with the Timberwolves.
Foye can attack the basket and light up the scoreboard on occasion, but really needs to improve his playmaking skills if he is going to make a career of playing point guard in the NBA. He has the size to be an off-guard when the opposition is on the small side, but against some of the league’s bigger twos he’s simply at both a physical and talent disadvantage.
Swingmen: There isn’t a huge question mark at shooting guard as there was entering last season. The Wizards don’t have to rely on the development of Nick Young or the balky back of DeShawn Stevenson at the position any longer after acquiring Mike Miller in the same trade that netted them Foye.
Not only does Miller possess a nice expiring contract, but his skill set will suit the Wolves well. He brings a dead-eye shot to Washington and he’s more than capable of handling the ball. He isn’t a very good defender, but he’s athletic and his wingspan makes him a good rebounder for a guy that likes to hang out on the perimeter. He posted a points per 100 possession mark of -1.1 last season in Minnesota, which is pretty impressive when you consider that the Wolves were outscored by more than five points per 100 possessions.
Stevenson, who was once thought of by some to be the league’s worst starter, has actually had some success in Washington (even if you only consider his ability to anger the entire city of Cleveland). If he’s fully recovered from last season’s back injury I think we’ll see him thrive as part of the team’s second unit where the opposition will be closer to his skill level. He’s not a good shooter, but hustles and can defend when focused. That’s exactly what you want out of a reserve. Young still has promise, but his offense runs laps around his defense as this point.
Caron Butler is firmly entrenched at small forward. He has worked very hard since his rookie year to plug some of the holes in his game, which has made him an incrementally better NBA player. He picked up a lot of the slack in Washington with Arenas out over the past two seasons, and while the team didn’t benefit in the win column, they saw just how dedicated and driven Butler is on a day-to-day basis.
Butler had 4.5 Win Shares last season on a team that won just 19 games, which quantifies just how much he did for the Wizards in just 67 games. In addition to his Win Share numbers, Butler was +0.3 per 100 possessions in 2008-09. As a team, Washington was -8.2 per 100 possessions.
Frontcourt: Antawn Jamison is one of the most underrated players in the league. He has a big contract, but rarely gets headlines or accolades despite his consistent, above-average play. He’s made two All-Star games, but arguably should have a few more under his belt as he enters his 12th season. He can slide down to small forward when the Wizards need, but Butler appears to have that spot locked down.
He can score in a variety of ways, whether in the post or stepping out on the perimeter. He has even developed a reliable three-point shot over the last few seasons. Jamison won’t play much defense, which is one of the reasons why Arenas needs to take fewer chances as the first level of defense, but he’s a good rebounder and one of the NBA’s nicer guys. That’s not going to win you games, but the Wizards, who have a few combustible personalities, need a guy like him. He’s flirted with, or achieved, 20/10 over the past five seasons, which puts him in pretty rare company.
Haywood flashed some brilliance before missing nearly the entire 2008-09 season with a wrist injury. He hurt his ankle in camp, which makes him the team’s biggest question mark heading into the season. If he can continue to develop on both ends of the floor while maturing a bit, the Wizards could lay claim to one of the NBA’s best starting fives.
There are a lot of guys that like to take shots on this team and Haywood is a superb offensive rebounder. If he’s healthy, along with Washington’s four other starters, he should be among the league’s leaders in second chances, which will in turn improve his scoring numbers. If Haywood’s ankle injury lingers, they’ll turn to Andray Blatche, JaVale McGee and Fabricio Oberto in the paint.
Oberto is the most established of the lot and has championship experience, but is much older than both Blatche and McGee. He’s actually a very good fit for the Wizards at center or power forward because he is a good passer and isn’t very aggressive on the offensive end. He won’t command too many touches, unlike a host of his new teammates.
Forecast: If this team is healthy, they are easily a playoff team. Butler (15 games), Stevenson (50), Haywood (76) and Arenas (80) missed a tremendous amount of time last season. Assuming karma repays them with good health, they could easily supplant the Hawks as the fourth seed in the East. Even if a few games are missed here and there, the Wizards have improved depth and will very much be a part of the postseason race.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7.
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